A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
